FX Trade Journal

Increasing dairy auction prices, stronger labor data and a higher inflation differential will drive the Kiwi to outperform the Aussie dollar relatively. Resistance anticipated at 0.7000 level

The slowdown of economic activity in New Zealand tied to a weaker Greenback will provide suppressed support for the NZDUSD pair with upcoming resistance at 0.7050 and then 0.7150 Upcoming trades Entry to short @ 0.7050 with t/p @ 0.6950 and s/l @ 0.7100 Entry to long @ 0.6950 with t/p @ 0.7120 and s/l @ 0.6850

Fundamentally the Kiwi is weak as recent data proved to be a string of downticks, along with an increasing expectation of a stronger dollar. The market now awaits the FOMC to establish the direction of the US Dollar; and with three possible scenarios the NZDUSD can either;  1) With no rate rise in March the NZDUSD will retest 0.7100 resistance. 2) Rate rise with two more rises anticipated for 2017 the NZDUSD will correct to 0.6800 level before extending again to the 0.6900 - 0.7000 level. 3) Rate rise with three more rises anticipated for 2017 the NZDUSD will correct to 0.6700 level before extending again.

NZDUSD Pair set for sell-off to 0.6900 support level on overall Kiwi bearish sentiment as Business confidence dwindles whilst US Data drive the Dollar to new highs.

Although the upcoming Dairy Auction may provide some bullish momentum to the Kiwi along with GDP and Retail Sales growth, overall bearish sentiment still weighs in on the Kiwi and amidst strong US fundamentals, bearish NZDUSD momentum manifests driving the pair down to key support levels of 0.7000 and 0.69000.

On the back of a strong dollar and a cash rate cut by the RBNZ the kiwi is set to sell-off to key support levels. The first zone is 0.7200 and then 0.7000 Trade: Entry to sell at 0.7200 with T/P @ 0.7100  Entry to buy @ 0.7100 with T/P @ 0.7130  Entry to sell @ 0.7130 with T/P @ 0.7000

Amidst Hillary's email wiles, stronger than expected US GDP growth will support the USD into the new week, and a widening trade deficit in the land of Kiwi's will ensure a test of support for the NZD/USD pair at the 0.7050 level. However, closer to the weekend election risks will start weighing in which will send the greenback lower against the majors. A rally to the upside of 0.7250 - 0.7300 is likely. Trade : Entry to sell 1.0 lot @ 0.7120 and Entry to buy 2.0 lots @ 0.7050

USD Even with the disappointing unemployment claims release today, the overall trend of initial unemployment claims is on a downwards trend which supports continuous jobs creation and thus the case of a rate hike by the Fed in December. The dollar rally is likely set to retest the yearly high at 12,300. AUD/USD With an upcoming dollar rally and a net loss of jobs in Australia the Aussie-Dollar is set for a sell-off to the 0.7500 support level. Trade: Entry to sell @ 0.7660 with T/P @ 0.7510 and S/L @ 0.7710 NZD/USD Being highly correlated to the Aussie Dollar, the Kiwi-Dollar is set for a sell off to the 0.7100 support level. Trade: Entry to sell @ 0.7200 with T/P at 0.7105 and S/L @ 0.7235 USD/CAD With no upcoming CAD data, along with Dollar strength the USD/CAD pair is likely to rally to the 1.3300 resistance level, however, strong CAD employment data will continue to weigh in on this pair and a sell-off is to be expected from the...

USD Supported by decreasing Jobless claims which currently is at a decade low, the USD is set to test its yearly high at 12,306 (FXCM Dollar Index) on an outlook of an interest rate hike by a hawkish Federal Reserve this coming December; and even though consumer sentiment and retail sales may have disappointed dollar bulls, these reports will at best only offer a retrace in the Dollar Index to the 12,050 level. AUD/USD With a Hawkish outlook on the FED in December, the disappointing Consumer Sentiment will at best provide a short lived rally to 0.7640 until the bears take control pushing this pair down to its 89-EMA. Trade: Entry to Buy @ 0.7610 with T/P @ 0.7640 and S/L @ 0.7595 NZD/USD With continued dollar strength and the Kiwi’s weakness on the decline of the dairy auction price, the pair on the weak consumer sentiment data may offer a retracement to the 0.7200 level before commencing the sell-off to test the 0.7000 psychological support level. Tr...