CURRENCY STRENGTH MATRIX

2017-05-06

2017-03-18

2017-03-12

2017-03-07

2017-02-20

Constructed from Fundamental Reports, the Currency Strength Matrix compares the Fundamental strengths of each currency against its major rivals. The values are subject to infrequent changes pending significant changes of sentiment found in scheduled reports released, and the strength as indicated generally gives an indication of direction for each currency from 1-week to 1-month. Please note that this table does not factor in political risks, unscheduled news releases and other factors that may override fundamental factors, and additionally, the Yen generally ignores Fundamentals.

To use the table, identify the currency of interest at the top of the column and compare its strength against a currency of choice.

For instance; I want to trade USD and need to pair it with either a stronger/weaker currency, Inspecting the USD column it is seen that the USD is Fundamentally stronger than all of the major rivals. Good potential pairs with the USD will be CHF or NZD as the USD is outperforming these currencies by a factor of more than 3.00. The worst combinations with the USD will be the AUD or GBP currencies as these are nearly identical to the USD (factor approximates 1.00).

Comments

USDOLLAR

Fundamentally the Dollar is set to rally to 12,240 - 12,250 following an upward revision in 1st quarter GDP data and the build-up to the June FOMC meeting in which the Fed is expected to raise rates by 25bp in line with the three rate hike forecast since December. The final hurdle to cross is the June NFP due this coming Friday - in which only a strongly disappointing report can derail this plan. Strongly disappointing in this context would have to show less than March job growth, with its low number of 98k. Inflation remains on course according to the Fed, and fears that they are falling behind the curve will sustain pressure on the FOMC to hike the Fed Funds rate. Technically the FXCM USDOLLAR has been locked in a falling wedge pattern since December and the reversal from Mondays low has reconfirmed the lower trendline. As the falling wedge approaches narrowing convergence; the FXCM USDOLLAR is facing an imminent breakout during the second quarter - with fundamentals poi...

USDCAD

A hawkish BoC has helped the CAD to recover grounds amidst favorable economic conditions, however pressure on oil prices following disappointment in OPEC production cut extension and widening IR Differential with the states will keep the pressure on the CAD for now. Key resistance levels at 1.3730

US Dollar 2016-12-22

Exciting times await as the US Dollar rallied into 14-year highs as US Treasury yields rallied and the Dow Jones hit all-time highs following the most recent Fed DotPlot that charted a three-quarter rate hike during 2017, supported by evidence of Economic recovery accelerating in the US amidst strong GDP growth in the last quarter of 2016, strong job creation with unemployment dropping to a low of 4.6% and the outlook that Trumpenomics is about to spur on inflation when Trump takes office. Slipping by unnoticedly however is weak wage growth and bearish momentum in consumer spending habits and capacity utilization which will likely dampen the outlook from a three-quarter rate hike to a two-quarter rate hike during 2017, and as result the premium US Dollar stands to be corrected by at least 200 points as the market starts realizing the over pricing of the US Dollar. This is not the only risk factor when it comes to the pricing of the US Dollar to watch as free trade agreement ...

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