FX Trade Journal

A hawkish BoC has helped the CAD to recover grounds amidst favorable economic conditions, however pressure on oil prices following disappointment in OPEC production cut extension and widening IR Differential with the states will keep the pressure on the CAD for now. Key resistance levels at 1.3730  

Expected CAD gains on profit taking and improvements in Canadian labor data following severe pressure from weakening oil prices and threats from Trump to impose trade measures against Canada. Support anticipated at 1.3500 - 1.3550 during May

Weak investment data in Canada will add weight to selling pressure of the CAD and with a mildly weaker Greenback we can expect the USDCAD to consolidate into 1.3300 - 13500 range for now with limited upside potential beyond the 1.3600 level Upcoming Trades Entry to long @ 1.3300 with t/p @ 1.3500 and s/l @ 1.3200 Entry to short @ 1.3550 with t/p @ 1.3300 and s/l @ 1.3670

The pile up of oil inventories in the US is negatively affecting the CAD and should see the USDCAD reach for the 1.3600 level. Now that the Fed is anticipated to raise rates with three possible scenarios exist for the USDCAD in the short term future. 1) Fed holds rates as is which will lift the USDCAD to 1.3600 resistance level. 2) Fed raises rates and indicates two more rate rises in 2017 will drive the USDCAD up to 1.3700 level. 3) Fed raises rates and indicates three more rate rises in 2017 will drive the USDCAD up to 1.3900 level.

USDCAD likely to remain range bound on uncertainty surrounding OPEC agreement in which production will hopefully be curbed by non-OPEC nations. Key resistance and support levels at 1.3500 then 1.3300 then 1.3400.

USD Even with the disappointing unemployment claims release today, the overall trend of initial unemployment claims is on a downwards trend which supports continuous jobs creation and thus the case of a rate hike by the Fed in December. The dollar rally is likely set to retest the yearly high at 12,300. AUD/USD With an upcoming dollar rally and a net loss of jobs in Australia the Aussie-Dollar is set for a sell-off to the 0.7500 support level. Trade: Entry to sell @ 0.7660 with T/P @ 0.7510 and S/L @ 0.7710 NZD/USD Being highly correlated to the Aussie Dollar, the Kiwi-Dollar is set for a sell off to the 0.7100 support level. Trade: Entry to sell @ 0.7200 with T/P at 0.7105 and S/L @ 0.7235 USD/CAD With no upcoming CAD data, along with Dollar strength the USD/CAD pair is likely to rally to the 1.3300 resistance level, however, strong CAD employment data will continue to weigh in on this pair and a sell-off is to be expected from the...

USD Supported by decreasing Jobless claims which currently is at a decade low, the USD is set to test its yearly high at 12,306 (FXCM Dollar Index) on an outlook of an interest rate hike by a hawkish Federal Reserve this coming December; and even though consumer sentiment and retail sales may have disappointed dollar bulls, these reports will at best only offer a retrace in the Dollar Index to the 12,050 level. AUD/USD With a Hawkish outlook on the FED in December, the disappointing Consumer Sentiment will at best provide a short lived rally to 0.7640 until the bears take control pushing this pair down to its 89-EMA. Trade: Entry to Buy @ 0.7610 with T/P @ 0.7640 and S/L @ 0.7595 NZD/USD With continued dollar strength and the Kiwi’s weakness on the decline of the dairy auction price, the pair on the weak consumer sentiment data may offer a retracement to the 0.7200 level before commencing the sell-off to test the 0.7000 psychological support level. Tr...

USD Continued hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve favours a stronger greenback. This sentiment may be provided by the fact that the Quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion survey observed an increased demand for loans during the second quarter of 2016 and the most recent poll indicates that there was little change to this fact going into the third quarter.  Weaker than expected NFP’s was not enough to curb the ongoing dollar rally and offers a timid correction that may provide the ideal opportunity to buy dollars on weakness. Technically a pull-back to the 12 060 level before the dollar rally continues as the 8-EMA bounces of the 21-MA as seen on the following 4-Hour chart (FXCM Dollar Index) . The dollar rally is likely to continue up to the upcoming elections in November. AUD/USD With unchanged rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia, positive Australian economic sentiment of increased retail sales and increased exports from the past week ...