Skip to main content

USDOLLAR


Fundamentally the Dollar is set to rally to 12,240 - 12,250 following an upward revision in 1st quarter GDP data and the build-up to the June FOMC meeting in which the Fed is expected to raise rates by 25bp in line with the three rate hike forecast since December.

The final hurdle to cross is the June NFP due this coming Friday - in which only a strongly disappointing report can derail this plan. Strongly disappointing in this context would have to show less than March job growth, with its low number of 98k. Inflation remains on course according to the Fed, and fears that they are falling behind the curve will sustain pressure on the FOMC to hike the Fed Funds rate.


Technically the FXCM USDOLLAR has been locked in a falling wedge pattern since December and the reversal from Mondays low has reconfirmed the lower trendline. As the falling wedge approaches narrowing convergence; the FXCM USDOLLAR is facing an imminent breakout during the second quarter - with fundamentals pointing to the upside. Expectations of an upcoming 2017 USDOLLAR low becomes probable during June - July.

Labels

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

USDCAD

A hawkish BoC has helped the CAD to recover grounds amidst favorable economic conditions, however pressure on oil prices following disappointment in OPEC production cut extension and widening IR Differential with the states will keep the pressure on the CAD for now. Key resistance levels at 1.3730  
Post a Comment
Read more

US Dollar 2016-12-22

Exciting times await as the US Dollar rallied into 14-year highs as US Treasury yields rallied and the Dow Jones hit all-time highs following the most recent Fed DotPlot that charted a three-quarter rate hike during 2017, supported by evidence of Economic recovery accelerating in the US amidst strong GDP growth in the last quarter of 2016, strong job creation with unemployment dropping to a low of 4.6% and the outlook that Trumpenomics is about to spur on inflation when Trump takes office. Slipping by unnoticedly however is weak wage growth and bearish momentum in consumer spending habits and capacity utilization which will likely dampen the outlook from a three-quarter rate hike to a two-quarter rate hike during 2017, and as result the premium US Dollar stands to be corrected by at least 200 points as the market starts realizing the over pricing of the US Dollar. This is not the only risk factor when it comes to the pricing of the US Dollar to watch as free trade agreement ...
Post a Comment
Read more