Skip to main content

Weekly Forecast 10/10 - 10/15

USD


Continued hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve favours a stronger greenback. This sentiment may be provided by the fact that the Quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion survey observed an increased demand for loans during the second quarter of 2016 and the most recent poll indicates that there was little change to this fact going into the third quarter.  Weaker than expected NFP’s was not enough to curb the ongoing dollar rally and offers a timid correction that may provide the ideal opportunity to buy dollars on weakness. Technically a pull-back to the 12 060 level before the dollar rally continues as the 8-EMA bounces of the 21-MA as seen on the following 4-Hour chart (FXCM Dollar Index). The dollar rally is likely to continue up to the upcoming elections in November.



AUD/USD


With unchanged rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia, positive Australian economic sentiment of increased retail sales and increased exports from the past week was not enough to overcome the dollar rally. Technically; a cross-over of the 8-EMA and 89-EMA is expected as the effects of the last decrease of rates sets in (expansionary policy).

Upcoming trade: Entry to short @ 0.7600 with a T/P order @ 0.7410 and S/L @ 0.7662 (3:1 risk-reward).

USD/CAD



The recent OPEC agreement to limit production supply of crude oil had the benefit of lifting the oil price, and may provide for a short term rally of the Canadian Dollar as the greenback corrects, however the longer term target is to the upside as the dollar continues to rally. Technically this provides the opportunity for two upcoming trades in the near future.

1st Trade: Entry to short @ 1.3280 with T/P @ 1.3160 and S/L @ 1.3320 (3:1 risk-reward).
2nd Trade: Entry to long @ 1.3150 with T/P @ 1.3400 and S/L @ 1.3070 (3:1 risk-reward).


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

USDOLLAR

Fundamentally the Dollar is set to rally to 12,240 - 12,250 following an upward revision in 1st quarter GDP data and the build-up to the June FOMC meeting in which the Fed is expected to raise rates by 25bp in line with the three rate hike forecast since December. The final hurdle to cross is the June NFP due this coming Friday - in which only a strongly disappointing report can derail this plan. Strongly disappointing in this context would have to show less than March job growth, with its low number of 98k. Inflation remains on course according to the Fed, and fears that they are falling behind the curve will sustain pressure on the FOMC to hike the Fed Funds rate. Technically the FXCM USDOLLAR has been locked in a falling wedge pattern since December and the reversal from Mondays low has reconfirmed the lower trendline. As the falling wedge approaches narrowing convergence; the FXCM USDOLLAR is facing an imminent breakout during the second quarter - with fundamentals poi...

USDCAD

A hawkish BoC has helped the CAD to recover grounds amidst favorable economic conditions, however pressure on oil prices following disappointment in OPEC production cut extension and widening IR Differential with the states will keep the pressure on the CAD for now. Key resistance levels at 1.3730  

US Dollar 2016-12-22

Exciting times await as the US Dollar rallied into 14-year highs as US Treasury yields rallied and the Dow Jones hit all-time highs following the most recent Fed DotPlot that charted a three-quarter rate hike during 2017, supported by evidence of Economic recovery accelerating in the US amidst strong GDP growth in the last quarter of 2016, strong job creation with unemployment dropping to a low of 4.6% and the outlook that Trumpenomics is about to spur on inflation when Trump takes office. Slipping by unnoticedly however is weak wage growth and bearish momentum in consumer spending habits and capacity utilization which will likely dampen the outlook from a three-quarter rate hike to a two-quarter rate hike during 2017, and as result the premium US Dollar stands to be corrected by at least 200 points as the market starts realizing the over pricing of the US Dollar. This is not the only risk factor when it comes to the pricing of the US Dollar to watch as free trade agreement ...