Devastated by a surprise GDP release that highlighted that
the Australian Economy contracted by -0.5% in the last quarter of 2016 the
Aussie has taken a knock amidst the stronger Greenback and finds itself at
critical support levels at 0.7200. The Australian economy however remains
resilient as consumer and business sentiments remain positive and as the US
Dollar corrects, the AUDUSD pair will find itself testing resistance levels at
0.74000 and 0.76000 in immediate future. The Australian economy will be put to
the test during 2017 as weaker demand in China impacts this nation.
Fundamentally the Dollar is set to rally to 12,240 - 12,250 following an upward revision in 1st quarter GDP data and the build-up to the June FOMC meeting in which the Fed is expected to raise rates by 25bp in line with the three rate hike forecast since December. The final hurdle to cross is the June NFP due this coming Friday - in which only a strongly disappointing report can derail this plan. Strongly disappointing in this context would have to show less than March job growth, with its low number of 98k. Inflation remains on course according to the Fed, and fears that they are falling behind the curve will sustain pressure on the FOMC to hike the Fed Funds rate. Technically the FXCM USDOLLAR has been locked in a falling wedge pattern since December and the reversal from Mondays low has reconfirmed the lower trendline. As the falling wedge approaches narrowing convergence; the FXCM USDOLLAR is facing an imminent breakout during the second quarter - with fundamentals poi...
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