Although risk sentiments have weighed in on the
EURUSD resulting in the pair trading as low as 1.0400 and US Dollar Parity
seems imminent for the pair during 2017, the upcoming US Dollar correction
amidst strong European fundamentals such as increasing inflation and increasing
manufacturing activity will send the pair upwards to the 1.0900 levels with key
resistance levels at 1.0600, 1.0700 and 1.0800. Risk sentiments for the
Eurozone during 2017 include the upcoming German and French elections and
parity with the US Dollar will only be reached should the elections result in
increasing Nationalist sentiments.
Fundamentally the Dollar is set to rally to 12,240 - 12,250 following an upward revision in 1st quarter GDP data and the build-up to the June FOMC meeting in which the Fed is expected to raise rates by 25bp in line with the three rate hike forecast since December. The final hurdle to cross is the June NFP due this coming Friday - in which only a strongly disappointing report can derail this plan. Strongly disappointing in this context would have to show less than March job growth, with its low number of 98k. Inflation remains on course according to the Fed, and fears that they are falling behind the curve will sustain pressure on the FOMC to hike the Fed Funds rate. Technically the FXCM USDOLLAR has been locked in a falling wedge pattern since December and the reversal from Mondays low has reconfirmed the lower trendline. As the falling wedge approaches narrowing convergence; the FXCM USDOLLAR is facing an imminent breakout during the second quarter - with fundamentals poi...
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