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US Dollar 2017-03-12



Friday's NFP release did very little to slow the current US Dollar correction that is set to spill over into Monday before the upcoming FOMC meeting. Although recent commentary from Fed officials have indicated that it is probable for the Fed to raise rates in the March meeting, the risk still prevails that they may postpone the rate rise at this stage. Accordingly, three possible scenarios exist for the US Dollar this week; and the Fed's DotPlot will be closely observed for clues.

1) The Fed does not raise rates which will cause a Dollar sell-off. Key support levels in this scenario is 12,250 and then 12,100.

2) The Fed raises rates and indicates that it will raise rates two more times in 2017. Key resistance level in this scenario is 12,650. This scenario is most probable according to market expectations.


3) The Fed raises rates and indicates that it will raise rates three more times in 2017. Key resistance level in this scenario is 12,750 - 12,800.


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