With Euro
and Pound corrections underway the EURGBP is set to narrow into consolidation
between 0.8600 - 0.8700 with a target of 0.8700 at the FOMC meeting.
Technically the EURGBP is retracing from a trendline rejection at the 0.8750
high following the last two highs since January. Medium term lower target of
0.8500 should the UK terror threat abate and the elections outcome become clear.
Fundamentally the Dollar is set to rally to 12,240 - 12,250 following an upward revision in 1st quarter GDP data and the build-up to the June FOMC meeting in which the Fed is expected to raise rates by 25bp in line with the three rate hike forecast since December. The final hurdle to cross is the June NFP due this coming Friday - in which only a strongly disappointing report can derail this plan. Strongly disappointing in this context would have to show less than March job growth, with its low number of 98k. Inflation remains on course according to the Fed, and fears that they are falling behind the curve will sustain pressure on the FOMC to hike the Fed Funds rate. Technically the FXCM USDOLLAR has been locked in a falling wedge pattern since December and the reversal from Mondays low has reconfirmed the lower trendline. As the falling wedge approaches narrowing convergence; the FXCM USDOLLAR is facing an imminent breakout during the second quarter - with fundamentals poi...
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